Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
